How the numbers work
Every metro page answers one question: what yearly pay, before taxes, does it take to rent or buy the typical home there? The answer is three income lines, compared against the pay of the metro's 10 most common jobs.
The three income lines
- Rent an apartment
- The typical rent across all rentals, times 12, divided by 30%. HUD calls a renter who pays more than 30% of income cost-burdened. It is a guideline, not a landlord rule.
- Rent a house
- The same rule, applied to the typical single-family rent.
- Buy a home
- The pay at which the mortgage payment, property tax, insurance, and HOA take 28% of pay. Lenders commonly cap housing at 28% of gross income. The mortgage is a 30-year fixed loan at 7.32% on the typical price with 20% down.
A job "can buy" when its median pay reaches the buy line. When a metro's apartment and house rents come from the same series, as in New York City, the page shows one rent line.
The monthly bill and what would change it
The first month's bill adds the mortgage payment, property tax, insurance, any HOA, and maintenance at 1% of the price a year. Cash up front is the down payment plus closing costs at 3% of the price. The rate that would let you buy, and the price drop that would, are each found by searching for the point where your pay meets the buy line.
Episode numbers and estimates
Metros with an episode use the episode's researched numbers, such as each county's tax rates and exemptions. Every other metro is an estimate built the same way for all of them:
- Price, house rent, and apartment rent: Zillow ZHVI and ZORI, the latest month published.
- Property tax: Census ACS median real estate taxes paid divided by median home value. California, Florida, and Michigan use statewide rates for new buyers, because their assessments reset on sale.
- Insurance: the 2026 state average for $300,000 of dwelling coverage.
- Jobs: the 10 occupations with the most workers in the metro, from BLS May 2025 wages.
A metro is included only when every input exists. The estimates leave out income tax, PMI, and closing-cost help, so treat each line as a starting point.
Sources
- Mortgage rate: Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year fixed, week of 2026-10-22: 7.32%
- Price: Zillow ZHVI metro single-family mid tier, 2026-09-30
- House rent: Zillow ZORI metro single-family, 2026-09-30
- Apartment rent: Zillow ZORI metro all rentals, 2026-09-30
- Property tax: Census ACS 2025 1-year B25103_001E / B25077_001E, with ACS 2024 5-year fallback
- Property tax for new buyers in CA: California State Board of Equalization, 2024-25 Annual Report (Publication 306), 'Average Property Tax Rate' and Open Data Portal dataset 'Summaries of Assessed Values, by Property Class (Table 4)', assessment year 2024-25: statewide average tax rate 1.152% (the dataset's StateAverageTaxRates field; the same row lists levies of $100,025,871,000 and net assessed value of $8,714,125,178,000). https://boe.ca.gov/legdiv/2024-2025/pub306.pdf and https://www.boe.ca.gov/dataportal/api/odata/Summaries_of_Assessed_Values_by_Property_Class . Homeowners' exemption: BOE, 'Homeowners' Exemption' page, 'The California Constitution provides a $7,000 reduction in the taxable value for a qualifying owner-occupied home.' https://www.boe.ca.gov/proptaxes/homeowners_exemption.htm
- Property tax for new buyers in FL: Florida Department of Revenue, Property Tax Oversight, 'Statewide Property Tax Overview (2025)' in 2025 County Profiles. DOR publishes no statewide millage figure, so each average is taxes levied divided by taxable value: school $22,826,973,523 / school taxable value $3,825,912,545,955 = 5.966 mills; non-school (county $20,682,076,778 + municipal $9,423,883,364 + other $6,236,357,520 = $36,342,317,662) / county taxable value $3,478,113,402,548 = 10.449 mills. https://floridarevenue.com/property/Documents/2025_County_Profiles.pdf . Homestead exemption: first $25,000 on all levies and a second $25,000 on non-school levies only, DOR 'Recapitulation of the Ad Valorem Assessment Roll' (DR-489V) lines 26 and 27 (s. 196.031(1)(a) and (b), F.S.). https://floridarevenue.com/property/Documents/statewide_recap.xlsx
- Property tax for new buyers in MI: Michigan Department of Treasury, '2025 Ad Valorem Property Tax Report, All Classes of Property, Real and Personal' (State Tax Commission levy report), statewide summary table, tax year 2025: average homestead rate 35.10 mills (all property 42.19, non-homestead 54.01). https://www.michigan.gov/taxes/-/media/Project/Websites/taxes/Tax-Levy-Reports/2025-Ad-Valorem-Tax-Levy-Report.pdf
- BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025, oesm25ma/MSA_M2025_dl.xlsx
- Insurify, "Average Home Insurance Rates by State (2026)", https://insurify.com/homeowners-insurance/states/. Average annual cost with $300,000 dwelling coverage (also $1,000 deductible, $25,000 personal property, $300,000 liability, good credit, no prior claims, 1980 build), mean of quotes from 180+ insurers via Insurify partners and Quadrant Information Services. Page updated October 21, 2026.
- Price: Zillow ZHVI metro single-family, Metro_zhvi_uc_sfr_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv, 2026-09-30
- House rent: Zillow ZORI metro single-family, Metro_zori_uc_sfr_sm_month.csv, 2026-09-30
- Apartment rent: Zillow ZORI metro all rentals, Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_month.csv, 2026-09-30
- Owned homes: Census ACS 2024 5-year B25003 via Census Reporter
- Tax units: Travis, Williamson, and Hays 2026 rate sheets; see docs/rent-vs-buy-model.md
- Insurance: midpoint of 2026 insurer averages ($1,700-5,500 range)
- Price: Zillow ZHVI city single-family, City_zhvi_uc_sfr_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv, 2026-09-30
- House rent and apartment rent: Zillow ZORI city all homes, City_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_month.csv, 2026-09-30, because Zillow publishes no single-family rent below the metro (the metro single-family ZORI is $3,464 and covers New Jersey and the suburbs)
- Borough values: Zillow ZHVI county single-family, County_zhvi_uc_sfr_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv, 2026-09-30
- Parcel weights and effective rates: NYC Department of Finance FY2026 Annual Report Tables 1 and 4, https://www.nyc.gov/assets/finance/downloads/pdf/reports/Annual%20Report%20FY26%207-8-26%20FINAL.pdf
- Insurance: midpoint of four 2026 marketplace averages ($2,111 to $3,350)
- Not modeled: the Basic STAR credit (about $290 a year) and the assessment catching up toward the 1.19% ceiling after purchase
- BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025
- BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, https://data.bls.gov/oes/#/area/0012420/2025
- BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, https://data.bls.gov/oes/#/area/0035620/2025 (metro, includes New Jersey and suburbs)